Макроекономічна політика України в контексті євроінтеграції: виклики воєнного часу та стратегічні пріоритети

Abstract

Проаналізовано сучасний стан макроекономічної політики України в контексті євроінтеграційного курсу з урахуванням викликів, спричинених збройною агресією РФ. Обґрунтовано необхідність посилення інституційної спроможності системи макроекономічного регулювання відповідно до стандартів ЄС та сформульовано пріоритетні заходи державної політики, спрямовані на зміцнення макроекономічної стійкості, підтримку повоєнного відновлення та прискорення інтеграції України до ЄС.The article explores the transformation of Ukraine’s macroeconomic policy in the context of full-scale war, taking into account the challenges caused by Russia’s armed aggression, global economic instability, and internal structural imbalances. Key macroeconomic indicators for 2020–2024 were analyzed, including government revenues and expenditures, their structure, inflation dynamics, the state of the balance of payments, and the impact of external and internal shocks on economic stability. Key risks were identified, such as the budget’s dependence on external support, the limited fiscal space, and the difficulty of forecasting under conditions of wartime uncertainty. Special attention was devoted to the analysis of fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and debt policies, as well as their alignment with the goals of sustainable development and the EU economic convergence criteria. The study highlights the role of the European integration trajectory as a strategic anchor for strengthening macroeconomic discipline, stimulating structural reforms, and improving regulatory efficiency. The positive experience of Central and Eastern European countries in using EU integration as a driver of long-term stabilization was summarized. The article outlines key policy measures aimed at enhancing macroeconomic resilience, including: strengthening the independence of the National Bank of Ukraine and maintaining inflation targeting in coordination with fiscal policy; the gradual phasing out of monetary financing of the budget deficit; broadening the tax base without raising rates by reducing the shadow economy; institutional strengthening of budget transparency and auditing in line with EU standards; reforming the public investment system with a focus on critical infrastructure and industrial recovery; improving conditions for exporters (logistics, risk insurance, port infrastructure development, export credit agencies); and the use of scenario-based macroeconomic modeling that accounts for various conflict evolution scenarios. The article substantiates the need to enhance the institutional capacity of macroeconomic governance in the context of post-war recovery and integration into the EU internal market.